Pay rises of 4% or more now account for over a third of awards – IDR

Over a third of pay rises came in at 4% or more in the three months to September 2025, research from Incomes Data Research (IDR) found. 

The median pay increase for the period stayed at 3.0%, unchanged for the third quarter in a row. 

More high-level increases pushed the upper quartile up from 3.4% to 4.0%, driven by rises in manufacturing and the public sector.

In the private sector, the median pay rise held steady at 3.0%. 

The share of pay rises worth 4% or more nearly doubled, with 23% of increases at this level, up from 12% the previous month. 

This raised the upper quartile from 3.2% to 3.7%. 

Outcomes in manufacturing made the difference, where the median rose from 3.1% to 3.8%. 

The upper quartile in manufacturing also increased, moving from 3.8% to 4.3%, as 44% of awards in the sector were worth at least 4%. 

These higher awards were common in energy and water and among engineering firms. 

Private services saw no change, with the median at 3.0% and most awards between 2.5% and 3.0%.

Meanwhile, public sector pay awards outpaced those in the private sector, with a median award of 4.0%. 

Public sector pay has been above private sector pay throughout 2025, following several rises of 4% or more for thousands of workers this year.

Zoe Woolacott from Incomes Data Research said: “The differing outcomes in the private and public sectors suggest the public sector is currently in the ‘catching-up’ phase, after a lengthy period in which pay awards lagged behind those in the private sector.”