Zarah ChoudharyThe number of payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 35,000 (-0.1%) in August, but showed overall growth of 0.5% (165,000) year-on-year, according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Labour Market Overview.
In the period from June to August 2024 – comparable with Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates – payrolled employees rose by 3,000 (0.0%) over the quarter and by 203,000 (0.7%) year-on-year.
The early estimate of payrolled employees for September 2024 decreased by 15,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 113,000 (0.4%) on the year, to 30.3 million.
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 75% in June to August 2024, above estimates of a year ago, and increased in the latest quarter.
The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.0% in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.8% in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.
The UK claimant count for September 2024 increased on the month and year, to 1.797 million.
Starting in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) will roll out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality.
This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around six months, increasing the claimant count over that time.
The estimated number of vacancies decreased in July to September 2024, by 34,000 on the quarter to 841,000.
Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 27th consecutive period but were still above pre-pandemic levels.
Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.9% in June to August 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 3.8%.
This total annual growth was affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June, July and August 2023.
Annual growth in real terms – adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) – for regular pay was 1.9% in June to August 2024, and for total pay was 0.9%.
There were an estimated 31,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in August 2024.
Reaction:
Michael Stull, managing director at ManpowerGroup UK:
“From a recruitment perspective, we appear to be in a hiring recession, with employers putting the brakes on their recruitment activities in nearly every sector.
“The key challenge remains with the economic pressure cooker of high vacancy and economic inactivity levels, low productivity, and fierce competition for scarce specialist talent.
“The latest UK labour market statistics show that employment has increased very slightly while unemployment has also cooled marginally.
“The economic inactivity remains concerning at 21.8% and overall we’re still only seeing minimal variances in these numbers which won’t be enough to shift the current sentiment amongst employers.
“So the question for the UK labour market is how do we break out of this cycle of uncertainty to get the economy moving again?
“Some answers may be found in the Government’s draft Employment Rights Bill but further detail will be needed to instil confidence, some of which may be forthcoming in the Autumn Statement.
“There is no overnight fix however and the wait for legislative detail is only a part of the challenge that employers face in driving up workforce participation, skills and productivity.
“For businesses that can do so, encouraging more people back into the workforce has to be a priority.
“Employers who aren’t currently in a position to hire must stay focussed and strategic with their workforce planning across areas such as skills-based hiring, flexible working, and talent development.”
Paul Nowak, general secretary at TUC:
“People need jobs they can build a decent life on. But the Conservatives left behind a toxic economic legacy with record levels of economic inactivity, vacancies in decline and millions trapped in low-paid insecure work.
“The Budget is an opportunity to repair and rebuild after 14 years of Tory destruction. By investing in the future, we can drive growth and create more good jobs.
“The Employment Rights Bill will also ensure we see improvements in workers’ rights and incomes.
“But if we want to get more people back into the labour market we also need to fix our crumbling public realm, improve access to treatment and help reduce alarming rates of long-term ill health.
“We know that youth unemployment has terrible scarring effects on young people’s life chances.
“This is not a problem we can allow to get any worse, and today’s rise in long-term youth unemployment is particularly concerning
“The Government’s youth guarantee can make a real difference and stop people from being left on the scrap heap. The sooner it is rolled out the better.
“But we also need to look at the quality of work on offer to those starting their career.
“Labour’s Make Work Pay agenda and its investment in green energy and industry can offer a route to the decent, well-paid jobs young people badly need.”
Sharon Graham, general secretary at Unite:
“Today’s employment figures show an economy in need of investment and skills.
“Unite has called on changes to fiscal rules so Britain can borrow to invest and welcomes indications that the chancellor has signalled this change.
“It is now imperative that we back Britain with a budget that delivers serious investment in our industries and our public services, to generate the future jobs and the support that workers and communities desperately need.”
