Ryan FowlerEstimates for payrolled employees in the UK increased by 54,000 (0.2%) between April and May 2024, and rose by 265,000 (0.9%) between May 2023 and May 2024. The early estimate of payrolled employees for June 2024 shows an increase of 16,000 (0.1%) from the previous month and an annual rise of 241,000 (0.8%), bringing the total to 30.4 million. However, these figures are provisional and may be revised as more data becomes available.
Increased volatility in Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, due to smaller sample sizes, means quarterly changes should be viewed with caution. It’s recommended to use these alongside other labour market indicators such as Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data, and PAYE Real Time Information (RTI) estimates.
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.4% from March to May 2024, which is lower than estimates from a year ago and has decreased in the latest quarter. The unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over rose to 4.4%, up from a year ago and also increased in the latest quarter. Economic inactivity among people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 22.1%, higher than a year ago but down in the latest quarter.
The UK Claimant Count for June 2024 increased both monthly and annually, reaching 1.663 million. Since May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions has been increasing the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality, expected to affect around 180,000 claimants over six months and contributing to the rising Claimant Count.
Vacancies in the UK decreased by 30,000 in the quarter ending June 2024, to a total of 889,000. This marks the 24th consecutive quarterly decline in vacancies, although the number remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.7% from March to May 2024, with total earnings (including bonuses) also growing by 5.7%. In real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), regular pay grew by 2.5% and total pay by 2.2% over the same period.
The UK experienced an estimated 49,000 working days lost due to labour disputes in May 2024.
Matthew Percival, future of work director at CBI, commented on the data: “While pay growth remaining strong owing to the difficulties employers face when hiring provides some short-term relief to consumers, there are tentative signs of pay growth easing as the labour market continues to cool and expectations for inflation are falling.
“Pay growth remaining relatively strong is a reminder that the Employment Rights Bill comes at a time that business already face significant employment cost pressures that are weighing on investment and pushing up prices. Businesses have a strong incentive to invest in productivity but the cost pressures they face are squeezing their budgets to do so. The government will need to carefully monitor the extent to which this makes delivering economic growth harder.”
