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32% of pay rises worth 4% or more, IDR finds

The median pay award across the economy fell from 3.5% to 3.3%, the first time it has fallen below 3.5% since December 2025.

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Nearly a third (32%) of pay rises were worth at least 4% in the three months to July 2026, figures from Incomes Data Research (IDR) found.

The median pay award across the economy fell from 3.5% to 3.3%. 

This was its first fall below 3.5% since December 2025, when it stood at 3%.

The middle half of awards remained between 3% and 4%, while 54% were in the 3% to 3.99% range, up from 49% the previous month.

Of the awards worth between 3% and 3.99%, the proportion between 3% and 3.49% rose from 28% to 67%.

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The median in private services fell from 3.4% in June to 3%. 

The latest analysis excluded April awards, which were affected by the 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage.

Zoe Woolacott from IDR said: “April is by far the most popular month for pay setting so the latest median is somewhat less representative of the overall landscape than trends established earlier in the year.”

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The private sector median fell from 3.5% to 3.2%.

In manufacturing, the share of pay rises worth at least 6% doubled from 4% in June to 8% in July.

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A further 58% of manufacturing awards were worth between 4% and 4.99%, up from 27% in June. 

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The sector’s median rose from 3.5% to 4%, while the upper quartile increased from 4% to 4.3%.

In private services, 73% of awards were worth between 3% and 3.99%. 

The remaining 27% were between 2% and 2.99%, with no awards worth 4% or more.