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Onshoring could shift 90,000 jobs from London to UK regions by 2031 – Robert Walters

The predicted jobs shift would mean around 2.5% of London’s workforce would move by 2031.

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Onshoring could shift 90,000 jobs from London to UK regions by 2031 – Robert Walters
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Onshoring could add up to £9bn to regional economies by 2031, with 90,000 jobs forecast to relocate from London to other parts of the UK, according to analysis by Robert Walters. 

The report showed the impact could rise to £12bn to £15bn per year as local supply chains and consumer spending increase.

Jonny Bohane, senior manager – market intelligence at Robert Walters, said: “Our forecast indicates a rebalancing of the scales towards stronger regional jobs growth over a widespread shift of business activity away from London. 

“The projection is a result of growing economic momentum seen across the rest of the UK, led by high performing regions like the North West, Midlands, and Yorkshire. 

“Alongside the UK government’s focus on stimulating regional growth and creating a more balanced national economy.”

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The data lines up with the Government’s plans for devolution and regional economic growth, including the opening of No 10 North. 

The predicted jobs shift would mean around 2.5% of London’s workforce would move by 2031.

Daniel Harris, managing director – UK&I at Robert Walters, said: “Onshoring talent strategies are becoming more popular among UK business leaders, as they decide how to map workforces closer to home in the wake of continuing global macro-economic disruption. 

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“While many firms are keeping their senior leadership teams headquartered in the capital, they are also tapping into local talent by setting up operations or shared service centres in different UK regions.”

The North West is expected to see the biggest benefit, with 15,000 to 22,500 jobs relocating to the region over the next five years, injecting up to £2.25bn into the local economy. 

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The Midlands could receive 12,000 to 18,000 new jobs, worth £1.8bn, and Yorkshire could see 9,000 to 13,500 jobs, adding £1.35bn.

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Harris added: “Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham are the engine rooms of activity. 

“Over the last decade, these regional centres have become key career destinations for UK white-collar workers. 

“They offer a significant presence of high-profile, multinational employers, vibrant cultural scenes and leisure opportunities, as well as a lower cost of living compared to the capital.” 

He said: “Birmingham is home to Deloitte’s biggest practice outside of London, the industrial automation giant Siemens recently relocated its UK headquarters to Manchester, and the Bank of England plans to have approximately 1 in 10 of its staff working out of Leeds by 2027.”

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Other regional centres including Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cambridge, Newcastle, Liverpool, Reading and Cardiff are set to gain 24,000 to 36,000 jobs, worth up to £3.6bn. 

Bohane said: “The appeal of these regional cities shouldn’t be underestimated. But growth isn’t determined by businesses relocating or creating new jobs alone. 

“When professionals move into an area, the benefits ripple through the local economy. Increased demand supports everything from transport and housing to cafés, co-working spaces and the wider network of local businesses that keep these cities running.”

Harris said: “This shift won’t happen in isolation, and will require collaboration between employers, specialist recruiters, local authorities, infrastructure providers and supply chains to ensure regions can support growing demand and help businesses fill the new roles over the next five years.”

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