A slowly cooling labour market gives employers and policymakers time to react

In November 2023 to January 2024, the number of people aged 16+ in employment was 33.17 million, and the employment rate for people aged 16-64 was 75.0%. Employment levels have increased by around 80,000 over the last year, but the employment rate has fallen slightly.
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In November 2023 to January 2024, the number of people aged 16+ in employment was 33.17 million, and the employment rate for people aged 16-64 was 75.0%. Employment levels have increased by around 80,000 over the last year, but the employment rate has fallen slightly.

The UK unemployment rate was 3.9%, and 1.36 million people aged 16+ were unemployed. Both unemployment levels and the unemployment rate have increased slightly over the last year.

9.25 million people aged 16-64 were economically inactive, and the inactivity rate was 21.8%. Inactivity levels increased by around 100,000 over the last year and the inactivity rate increased slightly.

The number of vacancies fell in the last quarter and over the year to 908,000 in December 2023 to February 2024, but remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Average wages including bonuses increased in real terms in the three months to January 2024, with an annual change of 1.6%. The real annual change in wages excluding bonuses was 2.0%. Nominal wages continued to rise, at a rate of 5.6% including bonuses and 6.1% excluding bonuses.

Responding to today’s ONS labour market figures, Jon Boys, senior labour market economist for the CIPD, the professional body for HR and people development, comments: “With increased volatility in the estimates, it’s brave to draw out strong conclusions from small quarterly changes in the data. The big picture though, remains the same. Inactivity continues to rise which will worry policymakers and businesses struggling with unfilled vacancies. Unemployment held steady and remains at historically low levels. This means there are few people looking for and available to work.

“There are signs that the labour market continues to cool but only slowly. Vacancies – a measure of employer demand for staff – for example, continue their descent but remain above pre-pandemic levels. There has also been a sizable increase in the number of people reporting redundancy. Pay is also growing at a slower rate, but with falling inflation this does mean that in real terms, pay packets continue to grow.

“Financial crashes and pandemics yank the carpet from underneath employers and require a swift response, but it’s more usual to encounter a slowly unfurling trend, in this case a cooling labour market. Employers need to conduct proper workforce planning so that they have the long-term capacity to meet demand. They mustn’t take their eye off the ball with regards to training and development, investment in which has fallen away in recent years.”

Ryan Fowler

Ryan Fowler is Publisher of Workplace Journal

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